below FL180. Boren Blvd. Convective outlooks are issued for periods from several days to several hours. The figures below show the progression of the SPC's Day 1 Convective outlook. May 16, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. The timeline of a convective outlook typically consists of four main stages. Major Caveat Due to how the IEM stores the outlook geometries, the values presented here are for an outlook level and levels higher. NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the public, media and emergency managers with the potential for severe (tornado, wind gusts 50 knots or greater, or hail 1 inch diameter size or greater) and non. To the east of a closed low over the eastern Pacific, isolated lightning flashes will be possible with embeddedelevated convection. Hatched Area 10 of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. Conv Home. Future outlook for convection-permitting climate modelling. The great success of transformation optics (Pendry. Their popular convective outlook maps display risk levels for general severe weather threats and specific maps detailing risk for tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. Winter Weather. Hatched Area 10 of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. Fundamental Macroscopic Phenomenological Theory. 4 What do the Convective Outlook probabilities mean 3. 18 SSE Cape Hatteras Li. Isolated storms began to form during the afternoon hours of November 16 as the overall weather system swept across the West North Central region and into the East. This page is a brief summary of RSS, what it does and how you can use it. Winter Outlook calls for above normal rainfall over the Carolinas. SPC AC 010600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z. 3 In 2006, the Storm Prediction Center, National Severe Storms Laboratory and National Weather Service Norman Forecast Office moved their respective operations into the. WAFS grids TFM Convective Forecasts. 2 Where can I find a list of the abbreviations and contractions that I see in the Convective Outlooks 3. Unlabeled lines denote general thunderstorm forecast bounds; and the SLGT label is located in the. 12172023 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z TopLatest Day 2 OutlookToday&39;s OutlooksForecast ProductsHome. Atlanta, GA. First issuance is 0600Z and is the initial Day 1 outlook valid 1200Z that day until 1200Z the following day. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Jul 19, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. PCPNWX(PrecipitationWeather) The Weather Grid depicts precipitation and. Figure 1 is the Day 1 Convective Outlook issued 1942 UTC April 14, 2012. SPC Convective Outlook for Missouri Day 2 SPC Convective Outlook for Missouri Day 3 STORM PREDICTION CENTER NATIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK; SPC Convective Outlook Day 1 SPC Convective Outlook Day 1 Tornado Probabilities "Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. This comparison is a simple visual diagnostic between the two. Hail and wind reports are available since 1955. An analysis of the synoptic-scale weather pattern serves as the foundation of such outlooks. NOAA National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Storm Prediction Center 120 David L. The text of the outlook provides the effective time. While the accuracy of this outlook has been well documented, less work has been done to explore the. Dust storms andor sand storms. Winter Weather. Storm Prediction Center March 3, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Memphis, TN 7777 Walnut Grove Road, OM1 Memphis, TN 38120. This archive is unofficial and based on IEM's processing of text products issued by the SPC. This shows the region where convective SIGMETs are likely to be issued within the next two to six hours. Norman, OK 73072 U. The outlook narratives are written in technical language, intended for sophisticated weather users, and provide the. The SPC products available with email updates are TornadoSevere Thunderstorm Watches and Watch Status updates, Mesoscale Discussions, Day 1, 2, 3 and 4-8 Convective Outlooks, Day 1, 2 and 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks. Day 1 Convective Outlook Outlines areas where thunderstorms are forecast during the Day 1 period. US SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, Current Watches, and Radar. Visibility Restrictions. PCPNWX(PrecipitationWeather) The Weather Grid depicts precipitation and. Hatched Area 10 of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. Apr 13, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. (Updated April 5 2013) We added population information potentially impacted by the categorical convective and fire weather outlooks. Kansas City, MO. TORRO defines a severe thunderstorm as producing one or more of the following one or more tornadoes and or waterspouts. We know this, which is why we manage and monitor our own. Download significant weather features in KML or shapefile format. Severe weather forecasts are issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma, in the form of weather watches, convective outlooks, and status reports and transmitted to WMSCR for distribution. These convective outlook areas are outlined in orange as shown in this graphical representation available from the. IFR outlook Found on the last forecast GFA time, the IFR outlook forcasts IFR weather only for an additional 12 hours after the GFA valid time. Meteorologists at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issue daily forecasts, or convective outlooks, for organized severe thunderstorms over the U. Norman, OK 73072 U. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Rainfall Discussion Days 1-3 Excessive Rainfall Discussion WPC River Flood Outlook Day 1. As a shortwave trough tracked across portions of the Mid-South and southeastern United States, moderate instability and strong wind shear ahead. Additionally, there are four outlooks issued during the 24-h target period (which begins at 1200 UTC on day 1) that. US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service La Crosse, WI N2788 County Road FA LaCrosse, WI 54601. The Storm Prediction Center is one of the initial participants in the NWS experimental email updates service. ) Area Pop. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI. Convective outlooks represent a time-smeared forecast for thunderstorms and describe larger geographic areas that are likely to see the issuance of one or more convective SIGMETs within the subsequent two to six hour period. Their popular convective outlook maps display risk levels for general severe weather threats and specific maps detailing risk for tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. The 7 AM EST surface map below shows a dry line across western Kansas, a stationary warm frontal boundary draped across south central Nebraska, and a cold front to the west which was. The timeline of a convective outlook typically consists of four main stages. The Categorical Convective Outlook is produced by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for the purpose of showing areas of anticipated convective activity. Days 1, 2, and 3. Winter Weather. For black colored risks that means there is an enhanced threat of significant severe weather. ) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area. Jul 1, 2023 338,032. Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. Weather Topics Watches , Mesoscale Discussions , Outlooks , Fire Weather , All Products , Contact Us. The above graphic is a static representation of the US Drought Monitor. Weather Topics Watches , Mesoscale Discussions , Outlooks , Fire Weather , All Products , Contact Us. ShowHide WWA Definitions. Plot Description This application generates heatmaps of Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks. (MHX) The Storm Reports page is organized based on reports received from 1200 UTC to 1159 UTC the next day. non-tornadic winds gusting to 55 mph or more at surface (but which are not part of synoptic-scale straight-line winds of such velocities) Thunderlightning does not. The convective and fire weather outlook shapefiles and KML files are created based on the outlookfire points product (as defined by KWNSPTSKWNSPFW, respectively) then converted to GeoJSON in two versions overlay and non-overlay. Severe Weather Outlooks. Refer to ongoing Watches and Mesoscale Discussions for the latest regional details. Day 1 Severe Day 2 Severe Day 3 Severe Day 1 Fire Day 2 Fire. weather data NWSNOAA forecasts and warnings, estimated rainfall and snowfall over the last few days. This example walks through plotting the Day 1 Convective Outlook from NOAA Storm Prediction Center. General thunderstorm activity Term (Refer to figure 9) The Severe Weather Outlook Chart depicts Definition. Convection If the CONVECTIVE SIGMET contains only forecast information, it is called an Outlook. Dallas, TX. The Storm Prediction Center issues convective outlooks (AC), consisting of categorical and probabilistic forecasts describing the general threat of severe convective storms over the contiguous United States for the next six to 192 hours (Day 1 through Day 8). See the risk of severe weather, such as tornadoes, severe. The IEM attempts to main a realtime ingest of the Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks. Aug 10, 2020 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. EarthCam is the leading network of live streaming webcams for tourism and entertainment. A brief outlook in this field is given in the end. 15 . See the risk of severe weather, thunderstorms, and fire weather for each day and the forecasted time periods. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Hatched Area 10 of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. Day 1 Wind Risk. The latest outlooks are issued on 11102023. Sample convective outlook from April 2, 2017, with preliminary storm reports. Hatched Area 10 of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN. 3 What do the Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High risk categories in the Convective Outlook mean 3. ShowHide WWA Definitions. Day 1 Wind Risk. Many meteorologists use the NOAAStorm Prediction Center severe thunderstorm outlooks for severe weather guidance. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. The SPC issues Aviation Watch Notification Messages (SAW) to provide an. SPC Feedback. Winter Weather. SPC outlook schedule). Area Pop. Days 1, 2, and 3. We know this, which is why we manage and monitor our own. Useful Links. Interface for specialized WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Maps for NWS County Warning Areas and States. Atlanta, GA. Most recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 2330. Jul 12, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Climatological Outlook An outlook based upon climatological statistics for a region, abbreviated as CL on seasonal outlook maps. Day 1 Wind Risk. Today's Convective Outlooks Updated Fri Dec 15 194939 UTC 2023 Current Convective Outlooks; Current Day 1 Outlook Forecaster Kerr Issued 151945Z Valid. Plot Description This application generates heatmaps of Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Lecture 4 - Final Considerations. The AC is issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and valid for 24 hours. Sun Dec 17 123903 UTC 2023. The Storm Prediction Center issues convective outlooks (AC), consisting of categorical and probabilistic forecasts describing the general threat of severe convective storms over the contiguous United States for the next six to 192 hours (Day 1 through Day 8). Severe weather forecasts are issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma, in the form of weather watches, convective outlooks, and status reports and transmitted to WMSCR for distribution. SIGMETs are classified as either convective or non-convective. XArray Projection Handling. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Future outlook for convection-permitting climate modelling. Area (sq. SPC AC 101303 Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z. Right-click and select 'Save Image As' or 'Save Picture As'. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Both KLMT and KPDX were under a convective SIGMET outlook, which, you should know is a cause for a concern, but is completely manageable. Huntsville, AL. and from the eastern texas panhandle and western. ) Area Pop. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Convective outlooks include a general statement about the risk that severe weather will occur in broad regions spanning roughly 350 x 350 km, many hours or days into the. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps. Find current and forecasted severe weather, tornado, and fire weather outlooks for any location in the United States. SPC outlook schedule). The outlook text is written in scientific language for. 8-14 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. Learn how meteorologists at the NOAA issue daily convective outlooks for organized severe thunderstorms over the U. In addition, the 1300 and 2000 UTC day-1 convective outlooks were accompanied by a set of experimental probabilistic forecasts (Kay and Brooks 2000) for tornadoes, severe hail, and severe thunderstorm windproducts that were extended to all day-1 and day-2 outlooks in 2000 and that became fully operational in January of. The AC shows the number of reports of hail, tornadoes, and wind events per area. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster. Convective outlook maps show the probabilistic scale of the probability for a severe weather event in percentage categories. Area (sq. Welcome to the Storm Prediction Center&39;s Severe Weather Event Archive search engine and listing. SPC issues Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 Convective Outlooks that depict non-severe thunderstorm areas and severe thunderstorm threats across the contiguous United States,. Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic. Tornado Warning. Huntsville, AL. National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Paducah, KY. The outlook was maintained for the 1730 UTC Day 2 update on November 16, but was also expanded to the west and a mention of the risk for strong tornadoes was added to the discussion. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Wind Reports (CSV) (Raw Wind CSV) () The Storm Reports page is organized based on reports received from 1200 UTC to 1159 UTC the next day. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Atlanta, GA. AWC - Convection. The convectiveoutlook endpoint provides convective outlook information based on SPC Convective Outlooks. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. The Categorical Convective Outlook is produced by the National Weather Service&x27;s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for the purpose of showing areas of anticipated convective activity. The process begins with special software available to NOAA forecasters that allow meteorologists to view current model projections, weather observations and upper air data from weather balloons. Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Norman, OK 73072 U. Storm Prediction Center December 11, 2021 1200 UTC Day 1. These events occur due to the upward movement of warm air, leading to the cooling and condensation of moisture in the. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) provides convective outlooks for the contiguous United States, categorizing the risk of severe weather, fire weather, and tornadoes. Overview Winter Overview Convective Overview Precipitation Snow Depth 850hpa Temp 2m Temp Max 2m Temp Min 2m Temp MSLP 500 hPa Geopotential 10m Wind (kt) 10m Wind (kmh) 10m Wind (mph) Wind Gust (kt) Wind Gust (kmh) Wind Gust (mph) 300hPa Wind (kt) 500 hPa Rel Vorticity Cape Bulk Shear Supercell Composite Storm rel helecity. Section 6. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Their popular convective outlook maps display risk levels for general severe weather threats and specific maps detailing risk for tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. May 20, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Webcam Network EarthCam. enlarged prostate and obstructed bowel, metroid dread walkthrough
Hatched Area 10 of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. . Convective outlook
This includes the SPCs convective, hail, tornado, wind, and thunderstorm product. Day 1 Wind Risk. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Louisville, KY. Mar 2, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Day 1 Severe Day 2 Severe Day 3 Severe Day 1 Fire Day 2 Fire. The threat level on the Thunderstorm Outlook is determined using a combination of hazard thresholds, likelihood of occurrence and impacts based on known vulnerabilities and exposure. Analyzing radar, with reliable data overlays, provides a more seamless, worry-free experience. Convective Outlook Term. there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over parts of eastern colorado. Find the current and future forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Water Supply Outlook A seasonal volume forecast, generally for a period centered around the time of spring snowmelt (e. Central Iowa Watches and Warnings Map. Organized convective storms in the United States, however, are typically well-simulated with kilometer-scale models (Lundquist et al. Schedule for transmission of SPC national convective outlooks, as valid on 3 May 1999. Current Severe Weather. Convective outlooks are issued for the following three days. Jul 12, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. NWS Product Translation to. Jun 15, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. Find the current convective outlook for the Central Region of the United States, including active watches, mesoscale discussion, and radar loop. Memphis, TN. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Birmingham, AL. Storm Prediction Center March 3, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A total of 58 tornadoes were confirmed during the outlook period, three of which were rated EF2. Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. Click on the NWS Warnings and Advisories Map above for more details. Storm Prediction Center February 2, 2007 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 Convective Outlooks depicting forecast areas of general (non-severe) and severe thunderstorm threats across the contiguous United States, along with a text narrative discussion consisting of a plain-language summary of the threat type(s) and timing. A convective outlook is outlined in yellow. Convective outlooks are issued for the following eight days (issued separately for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, and Days 48), and detail the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the given. 04282023 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z. This site is designed to help educators, emergency managers, or anyone interested in learning about weather and weather safety. Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Convective outlooks provide information on potential severe weather, including thunderstorms, tornadoes, damaging high winds, and hail. The convective outlook is updated daily by the Severe Weather Outlook Day 1 team at the Central Region Headquarters. NWS Product Translation to. Area (sq. Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service. Day 3. The convective outlook is the primary forecast used by a wide variety of users such as National Weather Service (NWS) offices, emergency managers, and other organizations as the initial step in the severe storms forecast and warning process. Storm Prediction Center is providing tornadosevere thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective day 1-3 outlooks and fire weather outlooks through RSS. Norman, OK 73072 U. Major Caveat Due to how the IEM stores the outlook geometries, the values presented here are for an outlook level and levels higher. Occurring just days after a deadly and more significant event across similar areas just a week prior, this particular outbreak led to 63 tornadoes within a 9 1 2-hour. 04282023 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z. EarthCam provides complete infrastructure services to manage, host and maintain live streaming video solutions for its consumers and. Sigma to Pressure Interpolation. 5 . D6. A Convective Outlook (AC) delineates areas forecast to have thunderstorms (convective activity) at different levels of risk. WAFS grids TFM Convective Forecasts. Louisville, KY. Broadly favorable low-level theta-e will exist in the outlook corridor, with stronger deep-layer winds and large-scale support in northern areas -- closer to the ejecting midupper trough. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. The tornado impacted areas near or within the communities of El Reno, Piedmont, and Guthrie, killing nine and injuring 181. Conv Home. Meteorologists at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issue daily forecasts, or convective outlooks, for organized severe thunderstorms over the U. See the risk maps, statistics, and climatology data for each category and product. Oct 27, 2023 JetStream - An Online School for Weather Welcome to JetStream, the National Weather Service Online Weather School. Apr 27, 2011 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. 25" to 0. Mar 24, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. They are valuable in solving the urgent problem of convective mass transfer in a porous medium (e. You can access those archived events by using the simple. ) Area Pop. Maps of SPC Day-2 categorical convective outlook risk areas valid from 12 UTC 3 May through 12 UTC 4 May 1999, beginning at the following issuance times in UTC on 2 May 0730 (light blue and yellow lines) and 1730 (dark blue and gold lines). 20140503 for May 3, 2014). Memphis, TN. See the risk of severe weather, thunderstorms, and fire weather for each day and the forecasted time periods. Minneapolis, MN. spc ac 040604 day 1 convective outlook nws storm prediction center norman ok 0104 am cdt tue apr 04 2023 valid 041200z - 051200z. The center also develops severe weather forecasting techniques and conducts research. National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Learn about the risk categories, probabilistic thresholds, and the purpose of the convective outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Severe weather continued through April, May, and June with 61 consecutive days with a Slight Risk or higher. Click here for the Service Change Notice. Baltimore, MD. , 20030123 for January 23, 2003). Jun 15, 2023 Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center. For convective tops see Convective SIGMETs (WST), convective Center Weather Advisories (CWA), Aviation Watch Notification Messages (AWW), Severe ThunderstormTornado Watch Notification Messages (WW), and the Convective Outlook (AC). To the east of a closed low over the eastern Pacific, isolated lightning flashes will be possible with embeddedelevated convection. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. Day 2 Probabilistic Wind Outlook (15) Day 3 Convective Outlook (16) Day 3 Categorical Outlook (17) Day 3 Significant Severe Outlook (18) Day 3 Probabilistic Outlook (19) Day 4 - 8 Convective Outlook (20) Day 4 Probabilistic Outlook (21) Day 5 Probabilistic Outlook (22) Day 6 Probabilistic Outlook (23) Day 7 Probabilistic Outlook (24). Storm Prediction Center. EPA - UV Alert Forecast Map. , 2014; Kendon et al. The KML and shapefile are then created based on GeoJSON using GDAL utilities. CL indicates that the climate outlook has an equal chance of being above normal, normal, or below normal. US SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, Current Watches, and Radar. A marginal risk for severe weather means that isolated severe thunderstorms are possible but are limited in coverage, intensity, or duration. May 14, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. . sex xhat